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System of natural fire risk indicators (verification of various risk assessment procedures occurrence of natural fires) including instructions for the use of the integrated forecast system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Jurečka, František ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The presented methodology represents an improvement of the currently used system of wildfire monitoring and forecast. Based on extensive testing, it defines two fire weather indices. The method shows how the combination of both indices can lead to robust fire risk estimates. Both indices were uset to generate a forecast of fire weather, but also to quantify th erelationship between the frequency of favorable conditions for the occurrence of natural fires and their observed numbers, in several time steps (from 1 day to the entire season) The methodology has been implemented within the www. firerisk.cz portal, where it serves as a tool for operational fire risk forecasting. The text of the methodology therefore contains instructions for using the menthodology therefore contains instructions for using the firerick.cz portal. Great attention is paid in the methodology to the aspect of climate change and estimating the impact of this phenomenon on the frequency of wildfires in the Czech republic.
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